AA NYSE
Alcoa Corporation
1W: -7.2%
1M: -9.7%
3M: -12.6%
YTD: -31.6%
1Y: -3.4%
3Y: +64.3%
5Y: -29.2%
$39.93
+1.33 (+3.45%)
After Hours: $39.74 (-0.19, -0.48%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.3%
$35
$36
$38
$40
$41
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 67% of companies Debt: 32.1% of company value Bonds: $294.9M held by 181 funds, 160 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Peers
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Institutions
ETF Exposure
Dark Pool
Short Interest
Supply Chain
Oct Typical
⛅
Partly Cloudy
+5.0% YTD avg
Midterm Year
⛈️
Stormy
-33.5% YTD avg
2026 Now
⛈️
Stormy
Below typical
20yr Avg YTD
+5.0%
Day 206 of 252
Midterm Year YTD
-33.5%
Presidential cycle avg
2026 YTD
-29.4%
Below 20yr avg
Typical Vol
53%
Annualized
Monthly Weather Forecast
Jan
20yr
⛈️
+0.5%
Midterm
🌧️
-4.7%
40% win
51% vol
Feb
20yr
💨
+6.3%
Midterm
☀️
+9.2%
30% win
52% vol
Mar
20yr
🌫️
+0.9%
Midterm
☀️
+14.8%
40% win
78% vol
Apr
20yr
🌫️
-3.1%
Midterm
⛅
+2.0%
40% win
62% vol
May
20yr
💨
-1.8%
Midterm
🌧️
-4.6%
50% win
53% vol
Jun
20yr
⛈️
-5.4%
Midterm
⛈️
-20.3%
40% win
54% vol
Jul
20yr
💨
-5.0%
Midterm
⛈️
-20.6%
60% win
48% vol
Aug
20yr
💨
-0.9%
Midterm
⛈️
-17.9%
60% win
50% vol
Sep
20yr
⛈️
+0.8%
Midterm
⛈️
-35.4%
50% win
52% vol
Oct
20yr
💨
+1.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-36.8%
60% win
53% vol
Now:
-4.9%
Nov
20yr
💨
+8.1%
Midterm
⛈️
-27.7%
70% win
54% vol
Dec
20yr
💨
+8.6%
Midterm
⛈️
-12.9%
60% win
49% vol
Seasonality (20yr)
Updated: 2026-10-27
YTD: -29.4%