AA NYSE
Alcoa Corporation
1W: -7.2%
1M: -9.7%
3M: -12.6%
YTD: -31.6%
1Y: -3.4%
3Y: +64.3%
5Y: -29.2%
$39.88
+1.28 (+3.32%)
Weekly Expected Move ±4.3%
$35
$36
$38
$40
$41
Credit Risk of going bust: higher than 67% of companies Debt: 32.1% of company value Bonds: $294.9M held by 181 funds, 160 bp over Treasuries → details ▾
Of US companies ranked in the middle of the pack, about 1 in 580 filed for bankruptcy within a year (2020-2025).
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
If the stock fell to about $1.73 (down 96%), Alcoa Corporation would be worth roughly what it owes.
Total debt $4.82B against a stock market value of $10.21B.
Distance to default 3.68 (Merton model): prices to 2026-10-26, balance sheet 2026-09-30, debt counted $2.41B (short-term plus half of long-term), stock volatility 53.2%; Altman Z 1.86. A ranking and a back-test, not a forecast.
Bond figures are fund-reported marks (SEC N-PORT) as of Jul 2026. How these are computed.
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Technical Signal Summary
Technical Signal
BEARISH
-80
BearishNeutralBullish
Trend (30%)
0
Momentum (25%)
0
Volume (20%)
12
Volatility (10%)
0
Patterns (15%)
50
Price vs SMA 20$41.29
Price vs SMA 50$45.55
Price vs SMA 200$56.90
EMA 9/21 Cross39.90/41.46
SMA 50/200 CrossDeath
ADX DirectionADX 19
Supertrend$42.73
Parabolic SAR$43.98
SMA Slope-0.180
RSI32.2
Stochastic K/D7/15
Williams %R-85
CCI-162
TSI vs Signal-34.2
CMO-35.5
ROC-7.15%
OBV SignalDistrib
Chaikin MF0.000
MFI28
Force Index-1.1M
Elder Ray Bull-2.75
AA is trading below its falling 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a downtrend. The 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA (death cross active). RSI at 32 shows bearish momentum. Volume analysis shows OBV is declining (distribution) with Chaikin Money Flow near zero at 0.000. The squeeze is off with negative momentum, suggesting downward pressure. ADX at 19 suggests the market is range-bound. Price is 54.1% below its 52-week high. No significant candlestick patterns detected today.
Moving Average Ribbon & Trend
| Moving Average | Value | Distance | % Distance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | $41.29 | $2.60 | -6.30% | Bearish |
| SMA 50 | $45.55 | $6.86 | -15.06% | Bearish |
| SMA 200 | $56.90 | $18.21 | -32.00% | Bearish |
| EMA 9 | $39.90 | $1.21 | -3.03% | Bearish |
| EMA 21 | $41.46 | $2.77 | -6.68% | Bearish |
| EMA 50 | $44.55 | $5.86 | -13.15% | Bearish |
| EMA 200 | $49.61 | $10.92 | -22.01% | Bearish |
| VWMA 20 | $41.24 | $2.55 | -6.18% | Bearish |
| WMA 20 | $40.65 | $1.96 | -4.82% | Bearish |
| DEMA 21 | $39.04 | $0.35 | -0.90% | Bearish |
| TEMA 21 | $38.76 | $0.07 | -0.18% | Bearish |
Momentum Dashboard
Volume & Flow Analysis
Mixed Volume Signals
OBV: Distribution
CMF: Neutral Flow
Volatility & Range
52-Week
54.1% from high
20-Day
12.8% from high
Bollinger
6th pctile
Donchian
15th pctile
Turtle Long Stop: $39.70
Turtle Short Stop: $42.36
S2
$37.34
S1
$37.63
Pivot
$38.18
R1
$38.47
R2
$39.02
Candlestick Pattern Scanner
No candlestick patterns detected today.
Bullish Patterns
—
3 White Soldiers
—
Morning Star
—
Bullish Engulfing
—
Hammer
—
Inverted Hammer
—
Piercing Line
—
Bullish Harami
—
Abandoned Baby
Bearish Patterns
—
3 Black Crows
—
Evening Star
—
Bearish Engulfing
—
Dark Cloud Cover
—
Bearish Harami
—
2 Black Gapping
Neutral
—
Doji